Edgar Fiedler

“Expansions do not die of old age. The probability of recession in the following year is the same for a three-year-old expansion as it is for a five- or six-year-old expansion.”

“Ask five economists and you'll get five different answers - six if one went to Harvard.”

“At some risk of oversimplification, I suggest that the usual reason a business cycle turns into a monster is an overdose of government policy.”

“The herd instinct among forecasters makes sheep look like independent thinkers.”

“If you have to forecast, forecast often.”

“If we're going to forecast the business cycle, surely it is a good idea to know the business cycle. Sounds reasonable, but it's not that easy.”